Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf705e89cc1fa70567b6c92b58a48e226773ed247e95aaae25952433c6a99779c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 12c | 1,948$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 7c | 274.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 12c | 264$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 244.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…6cc4backed Yes | 10c | 115.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 101.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 74.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 66.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…7293backed Yes | 39c | 57.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 54c | 28.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb093…993dbacked Yes | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…32e6backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 60c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,700 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.