Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x336c2bcb2ad099dd77e01083b4a8ea46ed9cb0a615b3486cad7651cb7856aa3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 0c | 25,042$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,565$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…68f9backed Yes | 24c | 1,195$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…4948backed Yes | 24c | 1,191$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…bdf2backed Yes | 24c | 1,166$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bb…bff0backed Yes | 24c | 1,123$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…07ecbacked Yes | 24c | 1,104$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…7180backed Yes | 24c | 1,080$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…a935backed Yes | 9c | 963$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…aa7cbacked Yes | 22c | 936$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…c80fbacked Yes | 22c | 925$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0006…87b6backed Yes | 24c | 912$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…2ffebacked Yes | 17c | 908$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…f819backed Yes | 23c | 899$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…45aebacked Yes | 21c | 890$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f9…70ebbacked Yes | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…4e12backed No | 76c | 663$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb13…a48abacked No | 76c | 626$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…d999backed No | 76c | 602$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…b7b5backed No | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…cc04backed No | 76c | 590$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669a…9f3fbacked No | 76c | 569$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8715…37f0backed No | 76c | 564$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…252fbacked No | 76c | 557$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…fffcbacked No | 76c | 547$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 10c | 541.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…de0cbacked No | 76c | 541$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…c1a4backed No | 76c | 539$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb938…8b88backed Yes | 13c | 533.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6782…8f58backed No | 76c | 533$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce97…cd59backed No | 76c | 528$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…2851backed No | 78c | 510$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…65eebacked No | 77c | 495$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc8…d816backed No | 78c | 481$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…7f1cbacked No | 78c | 455$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…7007backed No | 79c | 451$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…009cbacked No | 79c | 439$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…83d6backed No | 78c | 415$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57e…23a5backed No | 77c | 404$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072c…0b1fbacked No | 76c | 370$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…cbe7backed No | 76c | 330$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3b…0b61backed No | 76c | 312$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 4c | 275.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 18c | 274.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…7e1bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…19a6backed Yes | 15c | 169.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 148$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 77c | 132.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 78c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed Yes | 11c | 128.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 18c | 104.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 79.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,800-$6,900 in January?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,700-$6,800 in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,100-$7,200 in January?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,700 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.