Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6aa6912fe59372ad62be774a5aba1890ccb2084931e7e6afd547eea11e94e7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 11,213$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.79 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 10,301$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 0c | 10,291$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 7,751$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc710…f2aebacked Yes | 0c | 7,122$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…f093backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…9c64backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 5c | 3,481$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 0c | 3,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes | 30c | 2,211$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25fb…b3e7backed Yes | 11c | 1,877$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…cf54backed Yes | 23c | 1,736$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 18c | 1,208$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.69 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,201$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,195$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…276ebacked No | 74c | 1,148$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 17c | 1,041$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 1c | 1,001$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 904.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 899.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 763.92$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.46 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 70c | 689.98$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.99 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…6253backed Yes | 19c | 640.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 627.21$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.96 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 5c | 603.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 579.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e860backed Yes | 26c | 546.06$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 19c | 535.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 515.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 24c | 500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 19c | 492.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 22c | 462.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 448.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…24a8backed Yes | 27c | 444$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes | 27c | 427.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 18c | 413.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 72c | 410.77$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 25c | 407.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 70c | 399.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…adb3backed No | 76c | 392.01$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 372.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Yes | 27c | 367.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf266…60debacked Yes | 31c | 364.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 363.28$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 78c | 359.66$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 23c | 357.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes | 11c | 350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…b1a4backed Yes | 30c | 337.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…ed73backed Yes | 33c | 334.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d39…0be3backed No | 75c | 322.96$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…0d42backed Yes | 28c | 321.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73fa…e579backed Yes | 32c | 315.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 31c | 299.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 21c | 284.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 261.89$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd767…7c84backed Yes | 28c | 248.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 25c | 237.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…41b6backed Yes | 27c | 234.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ca…3f6ebacked Yes | 23c | 230.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 32c | 229.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…4469backed Yes | 29c | 208.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 6c | 205.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 17c | 200.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d90…f99bbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 30c | 173.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…070cbacked No | 70c | 171.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4250…5c32backed Yes | 22c | 138.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 133.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Yes | 19c | 132.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…0d30backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…2d32backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 33c | 119.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…0083backed Yes | 30c | 110.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 72c | 103.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…1e02backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 8.1%9 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…f0bfbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…7bdfbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…edf0backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…b348backed Yes | 29c | 85.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 19c | 78.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…518abacked Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.