Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd11458490c4851bc838c1db11e3cee65f8e37b9887657c67f72ff5733137911a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $379,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $379,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 25,050$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.34 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 3c | 18,573$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.84 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 3c | 17,325$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.5 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 1c | 12,685$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 11,075$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…cb6cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 7,969$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 6,979$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.23 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 5c | 6,929$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.01 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 5,986$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,920$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.33 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc22…3e94backed Yes | 1c | 4,264$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac21…b3b2backed Yes | 1c | 4,209$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…cd10backed Yes | 1c | 4,191$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 4c | 4,142$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.59 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 9c | 4,087$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.83 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…b6b6backed Yes | 1c | 4,064$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…a223backed Yes | 1c | 3,814$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 18c | 3,793$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 5c | 3,638$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.31 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…2e76backed Yes | 21c | 3,600$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x311b…e742backed No | 79c | 3,600$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Yes | 1c | 3,531$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 3c | 3,517$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…47f2backed Yes | 1c | 3,189$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 14c | 2,930$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.14 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 2,866$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,759$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 12c | 2,674$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.83 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 2,652$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,642$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…00c4backed Yes | 4c | 2,457$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,349$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 14c | 2,197$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.56 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…d469backed Yes | 1c | 2,132$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…bc6ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,132$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 5c | 2,119$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…a0c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0333…7d70backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,982$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…ec87backed Yes | 6c | 1,979$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…d63bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,950$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 3c | 1,714$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 1,689$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,617$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 1,564$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,524$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…a418backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,473$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,460$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…73dbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,329$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,310$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 2c | 1,267$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 5c | 1,257$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 5c | 1,231$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…12f6backed Yes | 7c | 1,088$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 17c | 999.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 3c | 979.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…0b00backed Yes | 2c | 899.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 21c | 856.6$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.17 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 840.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…ae53backed Yes | 20c | 827.3$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2448…6e42backed Yes | 11c | 825.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 808.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 9c | 800.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2bc6backed Yes | 4c | 789.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47d…3999backed Yes | 20c | 756.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 6c | 754.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 739.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…9814backed Yes | 2c | 666.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 8c | 599.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes | 9c | 599.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 558.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 4c | 543.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 2c | 539$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78a…9f65backed Yes | 16c | 538.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 133 | 12.8%17 W · 116 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 7c | 529.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 12c | 515.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…11dfbacked Yes | 4c | 515.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 507.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…a405backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 11c | 495.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 2c | 475$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 3c | 457.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1965…09fcbacked Yes | 5c | 441.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…cee4backed Yes | 4c | 428.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…9490backed Yes | 7c | 408.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.