Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9d156734b373448ab6f893bd4bc92960da6df2958553e0e962e2ec0ca5e38a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $393,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $335,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 14c | 13,800$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.15 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…8d47backed Yes | 18c | 12,100$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 25c | 7,268$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.46 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 17c | 7,023$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.43 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 17c | 6,417$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.96 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 18c | 5,757$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.17 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 9c | 5,684$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 16c | 5,426$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.26 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 5,201$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 23c | 5,107$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 5,053$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.2 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 78c | 4,965$3,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.42 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 16c | 3,663$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.4 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…6a4abacked Yes | 31c | 3,505$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…11b8backed No | 69c | 3,505$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 14c | 3,409$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.91 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 14c | 3,353$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.05 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 11c | 3,291$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.46 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 15c | 3,241$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.13 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Yes | 13c | 3,182$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,093$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 28c | 2,676$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.81 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 2,419$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.79 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 10c | 2,381$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.12 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…393bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,375$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 16c | 2,365$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.68 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…00c4backed Yes | 15c | 2,302$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.04 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 18c | 2,088$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.8 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes | 26c | 2,056$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.36 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 14c | 1,974$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.45 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 20c | 1,894$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.35 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 14c | 1,800$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.37 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 19c | 1,771$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.94 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,736$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.42 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 21c | 1,697$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.78 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…11dfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,685$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,648$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.22 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Yes | 21c | 1,643$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +243.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 24c | 1,640$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.74 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 9c | 1,570$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 13c | 1,549$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 26c | 1,547$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.51 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,528$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed Yes | 15c | 1,519$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.83 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.99 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,414$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 1,330$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.66 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 22c | 1,259$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.17 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 66c | 1,247$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.55 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 2c | 1,169$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 24c | 1,157$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.78 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 1,093$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.39 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 67c | 1,068$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.32 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 48c | 1,045$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 80c | 992.7$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 29c | 974$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 17c | 904.93$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 5c | 899.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 28c | 893.52$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 14c | 873.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 34c | 873.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 38c | 853.54$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.43 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 19c | 851.54$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.37 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 823.76$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.65 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes | 11c | 820.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 4c | 814.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…379dbacked Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 8c | 800$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 799.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes | 12c | 775.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…a418backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…0b00backed Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 724.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 24c | 699.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…ec87backed Yes | 27c | 698.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 43c | 692.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf78a…9f65backed Yes | 16c | 688.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 133 | 12.8%17 W · 116 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…0127backed Yes | 15c | 680.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 12c | 672.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…be54backed Yes | 4c | 650.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 647.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed No | 66c | 634.37$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…fdebbacked Yes | 19c | 622.01$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 15c | 619.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 158 | 20.9%33 W · 125 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 607.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…652dbacked Yes | 34c | 606.84$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 17c | 580$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 10c | 575.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes | 24c | 573.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 24c | 560$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1965…09fcbacked Yes | 33c | 546.59$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 19c | 536.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 73c | 531.96$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 16c | 521.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.