Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fac601ae5aaa714f872d548863a6d4e8d607ecbf98871d65d63870c345a3d6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $386,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 0c | 77,563$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.67 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 28,218$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 23,774$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 12,349$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.66 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 0c | 9,506$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…e7d0backed Yes | 1c | 8,250$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 7,588$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 7,337$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 6,258$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…23d9backed Yes | 0c | 5,844$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,786$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 4,735$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…dc76backed Yes | 0c | 3,342$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 3,021$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 1c | 2,595$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,376$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e2…1321backed Yes | 1c | 2,032$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…00c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,952$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,941$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,914$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 1c | 1,758$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 98 | 16.3%16 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…5c90backed Yes | 3c | 1,444$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed Yes | 1c | 1,354$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 2c | 1,340$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,288$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,221$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,215$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…7de2backed Yes | 7c | 1,172$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 2c | 1,133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…8880backed Yes | 5c | 935.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 858.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…9dd2backed Yes | 6c | 816.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 4c | 751.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 2c | 701.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…6fddbacked Yes | 2c | 695.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1965…09fcbacked Yes | 3c | 577.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 544.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…f26ebacked Yes | 3c | 521.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…11dfbacked Yes | 3c | 508.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 466.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 4c | 465.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 5c | 418.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes | 4c | 399.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…754bbacked Yes | 3c | 327.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 8c | 296.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace1…923bbacked Yes | 5c | 294.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 287.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead2…b60fbacked Yes | 4c | 235.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 215.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…d168backed Yes | 6c | 209.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 9c | 176.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 173.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.