Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf135d00ec3f3a0f8e4a7f8f5c8cccd8593d060a585cf2073cc55c74c9083a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $647,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $562,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $647,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 4c | 18,256$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.16 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 6c | 14,478$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.67 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 11,251$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.67 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 2c | 10,845$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 6c | 10,259$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.94 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 6c | 9,500$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.41 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 9c | 8,285$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.28 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Yes | 9c | 7,727$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +243.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…c6f8backed Yes | 18c | 6,636$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.94 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 79c | 6,311$4,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.25 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 8c | 4,948$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.88 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 9c | 4,864$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.57 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 4c | 4,693$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 12c | 4,382$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.57 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 4,350$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.7 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 5c | 4,329$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.24 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes | 19c | 4,301$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…9814backed Yes | 0c | 4,076$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 15c | 3,986$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.53 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 10c | 3,868$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.51 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 9c | 3,772$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.51 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 17c | 3,640$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.62 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…9c64backed Yes | 8c | 3,512$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.04 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,392$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…0127backed Yes | 10c | 3,337$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.23 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 13c | 3,073$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.72 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 3,014$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,963$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 11c | 2,744$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 2,690$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.22 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 15c | 2,400$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.22 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,328$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,192$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.63 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 2,153$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 1,805$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 75c | 1,800$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 7c | 1,800$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 1,731$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 13c | 1,710$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.12 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…ec87backed Yes | 8c | 1,679$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 1,597$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,493$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…cf54backed Yes | 27c | 1,450$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbb…8b48backed Yes | 9c | 1,428$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 7c | 1,360$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 13c | 1,285$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,260$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25fb…b3e7backed Yes | 10c | 1,232$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…0031backed Yes | 10c | 1,206$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 5c | 1,195$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,139$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 4c | 1,115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 9c | 1,101$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0600…417abacked Yes | 6c | 1,096$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed Yes | 13c | 1,064$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,054$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 16c | 1,014$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.01 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,013$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa876…2397backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 8c | 972.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 955.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 8c | 949.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 9c | 938.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 911.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…6222backed Yes | 23c | 899.87$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…3332backed Yes | 9c | 899.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 21c | 898$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.86 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 11c | 865.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 23c | 859.13$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…a418backed Yes | 9c | 850$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…8367backed Yes | 9c | 832.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 9c | 830$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 782.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 9c | 734.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…3673backed Yes | 16c | 730.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f8…2714backed Yes | 18c | 702.57$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed No | 77c | 700$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 3c | 694.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 5c | 681.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 679.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 14c | 643.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 28c | 641.69$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 2c | 638.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 625$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 20c | 608.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 24c | 604.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 8c | 600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 5c | 571.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 555.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0587…e3b1backed Yes | 5c | 549.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…0d42backed Yes | 14c | 510.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 7c | 509.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.