TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$425,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $425,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c110,078$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.321,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c36,216$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.221690%0 W · 169 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c29,997$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302740.4%1 W · 273 L+0.7wins0.00per pick0cpaid+257.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes0c11,520$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.04539.4%5 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes0c10,584$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4179811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes1c9,412$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.941,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes2c8,061$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.622359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes0c7,792$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7928016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes1c6,900$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4234215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c6,325$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.851,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes1c5,073$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1124115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9331…4b41backed Yes0c4,666$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes2c4,239$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.41806.3%5 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,685$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.322,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes1c3,683$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.37120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes2c2,835$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.033408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0333…7d70backed Yes1c2,451$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.942524%6 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes1c2,263$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.916417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes3c2,222$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.871,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes5c2,113$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.64224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-86.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c1,889$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.212,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes1c1,863$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.934216.7%7 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes3c1,704$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019819.7%39 W · 159 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes1c1,584$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c1,564$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.882114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c1,562$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.662595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes2c1,491$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.793923.1%9 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes4c1,413$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.44619.6%9 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c1,411$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81027.8%8 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes1c1,338$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7311918.5%22 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,284$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.721,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306b…00c4backed Yes4c1,245$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.27210%0 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes2c1,219$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2088018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c0…547ebacked Yes1c1,162$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes1c1,143$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3121818.3%40 W · 178 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,142$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.924345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes6c1,113$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4445715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0899…2bc6backed Yes2c1,107$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.893318.2%6 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes1c1,105$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a76…7efabacked Yes2c1,029$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes2c1,011$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208127.2%22 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7372…612ebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404427.3%12 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c900.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.466915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c800$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62794.7%13 W · 266 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0874…08ffbacked Yes9c782.25$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.772128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick20cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes2c709.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.791356.7%9 W · 126 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes5c677.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8256429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1965…09fcbacked Yes3c673.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes3c630.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1965311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes4c604.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1610510.5%11 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes7c586.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2613312.8%17 W · 116 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes4c572.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.641230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f4d…63d3backed Yes3c555.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes3c525.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14726.9%5 W · 67 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda0f…754bbacked Yes2c519.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.74221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa700…deb8backed Yes2c516.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.49520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed Yes12c500$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.382920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf927…9dd2backed Yes13c485.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9c…6fddbacked Yes4c461.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.26714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506f…ae53backed Yes8c458.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-75.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32615.4%14 W · 247 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5c…8880backed Yes5c396.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.45166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-88.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes5c379.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013020%26 W · 104 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xace1…923bbacked Yes5c378.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20446.8%3 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…5fd0backed Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes8c265.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2214216.9%24 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c233.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9752619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes7c232.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73ef…2e2cbacked Yes4c224.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7268…0b00backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20277.4%2 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8169…915bbacked Yes6c186.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3cf…95e9backed Yes9c178.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.36720.9%14 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes6c172.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6811124.3%27 W · 84 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes9c170.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9112429.8%37 W · 87 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes7c162.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.163611.1%4 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes8c161$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.367722.1%17 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c135.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4578811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6d7…95d0backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42524%6 W · 19 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b07…782bbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.