Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b44fc4e423834f1b034399cdf66ece78087250d078902f441e1b8e05fc6c72e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $317,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $375,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 30c | 10,044$3,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,053.98 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 68c | 7,369$5,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,027.22 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 71c | 6,221$4,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.46 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 32c | 5,667$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.14 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x291c…9ab7backed No | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…e405backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 25c | 4,326$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.28 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 36c | 3,577$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.54 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 55c | 2,956$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.96 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 32c | 2,837$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.4 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 62c | 2,435$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.4 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…49f2backed Yes | 66c | 2,393$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes | 21c | 2,260$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.58 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 2,239$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.94 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 38c | 2,037$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.03 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…cf54backed Yes | 23c | 2,013$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 27c | 1,929$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.64 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba2…12e0backed No | 77c | 1,913$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 31c | 1,836$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.4 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 65c | 1,809$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.61 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed No | 4c | 1,660$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked No | 19c | 1,500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.94 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 56c | 1,428$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.26 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Yes | 71c | 1,408$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +243.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 74c | 1,367$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.35 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 76c | 1,300$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 48c | 1,200$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.54 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,187$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.66 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 31c | 1,100$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.64 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 16c | 1,092$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.9 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 38c | 1,090$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.37 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 47c | 1,069$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.76 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 15c | 1,061$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.02 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…ecacbacked No | 63c | 1,021$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 27c | 1,007$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…4da2backed No | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 18c | 976.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 946.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 75c | 923$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.69 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed No | 15c | 894.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…c4c8backed Yes | 77c | 894.65$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.41 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed No | 42c | 873.27$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.4 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 73c | 851.49$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 21c | 829.31$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.94 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 800$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25fb…b3e7backed Yes | 26c | 773.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 78c | 769.23$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 43c | 749.8$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.21 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 55c | 727.44$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 50c | 710.58$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.58 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…217fbacked Yes | 23c | 699.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.99 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…6492backed No | 5c | 699.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 26c | 642.31$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.31 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 58c | 620$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 73c | 617.33$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.13 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 61c | 606.19$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes | 23c | 600.34$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.26 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed No | 17c | 586.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 79c | 575$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 58c | 572.54$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.67 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…541dbacked No | 77c | 569.99$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 555.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.3 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…11dfbacked Yes | 23c | 527.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.74 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cac…67c4backed No | 77c | 520$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 36c | 510.8$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.8 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 32c | 504.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.33 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 26c | 501.34$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.33 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes | 57c | 500$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.87 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 39c | 500$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.83 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 27c | 499.8$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.58 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…e540backed No | 4c | 489.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 71c | 479.22$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.85 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…652dbacked Yes | 42c | 477.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.95 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 66c | 475$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 37c | 458.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.72 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 18c | 432.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.68 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 31c | 409.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.52 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 80c | 408.17$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 22c | 400$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.42 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 31c | 399.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.74 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 20c | 394.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.14 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 12c | 384.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 9cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 21c | 360.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.42 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5078…9521backed No | 20c | 341.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…eaf6backed Yes | 28c | 339.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.85 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 335.58$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.14 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 31c | 330.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.65 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…9c64backed No | 24c | 326.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 77c | 302.73$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.46 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 39c | 300$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 297.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.75 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.