TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,254 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes27c21,042$5,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,747.9622433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes27c5,855$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.055032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No73c5,034$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.048632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes34c2,814$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.351233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes26c2,766$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.868636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No68c2,529$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.7123330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d9…9baebacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c1,600$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.9919931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes31c1,479$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.4613338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No70c1,409$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.4412049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes27c1,400$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.281533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes34c1,300$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9714325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes24c1,207$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.821258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No69c1,146$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No69c1,125$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No69c1,091$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed Yes27c1,078$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes33c1,004$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.471637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2,039.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes25c999.98$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.996523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No75c815.1$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.581464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes30c799.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No71c770.95$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3611359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No67c739.23$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde1c…fb66backed Yes26c719.23$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes26c712.05$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.613231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked No62c680.16$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4c…dbd5backed No71c639.52$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No70c631.07$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.021030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes27c600$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8461…c6e4backed Yes27c570.38$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.111216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No72c540.79$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.427030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16511039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c423$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.967466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d1…3990backed Yes28c362.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa894…53dabacked Yes34c337.26$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+216.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed No64c328.16$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes25c322$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7810433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3d9…72aabacked No59c319.67$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.561711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-60.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be1…3feabacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes30c298.68$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.812839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No67c289$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.93771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes34c287.93$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.175330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8854…070cbacked No66c277.7$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.87450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c256.18$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3610836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa548…1fd5backed Yes26c238.46$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+66.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes32c213.63$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.543724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No67c213.5$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.731250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked No78c211$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Yes22c200.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.771741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b3f…50b5backed Yes25c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No73c185.67$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.134254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No66c183$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2212820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes33c174.56$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.62560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c166.04$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3614024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes32c156$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.481827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No71c151.3$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4317528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd056…2937backed Yes33c143$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed No73c140$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…b503backed Yes33c136.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes27c136.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.59911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No77c133.27$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.143743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c131.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0815148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No70c127.74$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.883850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes27c124.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7da…5edfbacked Yes41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes24c106.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes41c104.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c3…4c56backed No59c102.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33de…c7f4backed Yes25c100.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.79425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7330918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x614d…8692backed Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf365…f5e3backed No59c99.78$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes24c99.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.731546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes24c82.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x296c…9e76backed Yes26c81.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ace…e38bbacked Yes26c78.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x353b…1244backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c71.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3420242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Yes27c67.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes31c67.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.591457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed No76c59.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes38c58.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.332642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa34…02c5backed Yes26c56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4456…3fdbbacked No69c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c5f…f483backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked Yes30c48.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.431361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes27c46.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.71580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+122.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23eb…c516backed No75c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No64c43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No71c42.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.464344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.