TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,067 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0457…a72fbacked Yes2c13,040$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4980%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes2c10,634$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.82025%5 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371e…67d4backed Yes2c6,523$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes2c4,050$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.541711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-60.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes1c3,563$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.578632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…d6c1backed Yes13c2,581$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes2c2,538$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.111030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc10f…c7dfbacked Yes13c2,519$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes2c2,115$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.676523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes2c1,970$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.23911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No34c1,790$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.34475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick23cpaid+231.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,764$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4529913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3878…a125backed Yes23c1,576$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f49…231dbacked Yes2c1,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No80c1,495$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.661233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No25c1,184$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.431127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74b3…2367backed Yes32c1,155$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,125$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d4…0a2fbacked Yes2c1,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5160%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c1,055$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.34137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c1,044$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.321315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes2c1,013$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2690%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c1,013$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c923.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.17397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed No79c913.18$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.018636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c910.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid+173.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97dc…6babbacked Yes58c895.06$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf119…3db7backed Yes23c892.58$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb20e…887abacked Yes14c871.55$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes3c799.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bf…e6dbbacked Yes49c767.45$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c753.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.05911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf365…f5e3backed Yes58c712.53$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No23c709.98$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.243010%3 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No56c647$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.783713.5%5 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+1,104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce15…89cdbacked Yes49c606.83$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…c27bbacked Yes5c589.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca41…be9cbacked Yes42c567.79$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes4c560$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.02128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-80.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9527…9602backed Yes66c530.5$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd5…cccebacked Yes66c493.13$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…c0f4backed Yes38c489.63$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No62c461.26$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.0211359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d7…887dbacked Yes18c450.54$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02fa…bd0fbacked Yes76c434.84$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c432.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82498.2%4 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf145…2e5bbacked Yes24c424.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07ec…0ec4backed Yes53c411$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…edb6backed Yes25c394.64$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906e…e7e6backed Yes76c387.46$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.32366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c3…4c56backed Yes66c381.69$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae15…5b25backed Yes73c378.11$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes20c351.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1230918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e49…4328backed Yes44c328.83$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3d9…72aabacked Yes56c309.64$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7444…d414backed Yes42c306.48$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes15c213.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.193724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76bd…7281backed Yes76c208.53$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No75c172.57$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddaa…fdecbacked Yes60c157.45$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e4…2101backed Yes28c152.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1285…51c8backed Yes33c131.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c130.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5614024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcc…0694backed Yes52c126.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c2…a6e0backed Yes36c115.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes13c112.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed No68c110.39$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6614325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked Yes14c103.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.771361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde3a…a787backed Yes59c102.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c6…e6c0backed Yes74c92.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid+42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b7…b1eebacked Yes37c91.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa486…790abacked Yes60c91.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5e…8ea6backed Yes79c84.01$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da5…8594backed Yes51c83.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…e909backed Yes61c75.67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x881f…3116backed Yes24c74.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeccc…71f5backed Yes61c73.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x132c…7295backed Yes49c72.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc7…a2abbacked Yes79c69.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db8…dee4backed Yes52c68.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209b…834abacked Yes54c63.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b6…d7edbacked Yes74c59.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes33c54.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.884621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No69c47.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.962373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d8…2542backed Yes80c44.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb609…3c8ebacked Yes64c41.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f1…6cfbbacked Yes80c35.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe64…553ebacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.