Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d9e697965df5a82533f93a1e59639668176bef726b9b7690791cc3475724ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes | 13c | 8,026$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 14c | 6,278$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.56 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 13c | 5,338$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.98 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 10c | 3,609$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.42 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 10c | 2,927$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 12c | 2,919$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 12c | 2,539$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.71 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 14c | 2,149$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 15c | 2,122$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.31 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 1,910$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 9c | 1,850$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.71 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 1,317$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,030$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2,039.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 21c | 954.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 9c | 800$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd804…832dbacked Yes | 14c | 745.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 17c | 631.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 15c | 574.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 571.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes | 11c | 499.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 487.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 482.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 21c | 470.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 460.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…67d4backed Yes | 17c | 450.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…a72fbacked Yes | 16c | 438.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 432.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 400.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 378.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 15c | 371.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 15c | 332.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 13c | 331.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…926abacked Yes | 11c | 292.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 11c | 272.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 228.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 18c | 224.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 213.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…1a5cbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…b503backed Yes | 22c | 182.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 179.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…e2e0backed Yes | 12c | 160.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 159.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 13c | 148.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 13c | 134.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 16c | 125.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 12c | 124.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33de…c7f4backed Yes | 13c | 107.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…0a2fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 16c | 97.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 17c | 90.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes | 17c | 89.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…eaa5backed Yes | 28c | 75.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Yes | 22c | 62.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…0196backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in January?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in January?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.