TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes35c19,667$6,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,813.9522433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No63c9,693$6,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,099.068632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes37c7,009$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,393.18636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes29c4,290$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.113338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No62c4,232$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.4512049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes36c3,555$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.675032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No64c3,204$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.3823330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes36c2,663$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.591233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes39c2,465$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.731533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes38c2,300$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.453426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes35c1,994$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.087030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No1c1,966$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.661127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c1,419$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.919931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes30c1,400$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.256523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes27c1,300$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.2114325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6768…692dbacked Yes39c1,183$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.261450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes28c1,028$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.841637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2,039.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes37c1,025$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.111258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed Yes40c1,007$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.18850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No63c983.04$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.594231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No74c955$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No72c871$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes37c800.02$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5062025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No72c784$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes38c774.66$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.513231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes32c720.25$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.141030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes34c700.44$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.216827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c642.67$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.3215148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c582.23$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.2110836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No64c542.06$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c515.92$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.3511359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c459.11$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.7414024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes33c439.8$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.662025%5 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8167…c580backed Yes35c430$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.01540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No65c415.13$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes33c410.11$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.795330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5271…f692backed Yes35c385$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa894…53dabacked Yes28c361.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.051838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+216.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1b20backed Yes41c321.18$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No66c320.82$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes37c299.98$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.991070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03d1…3990backed Yes34c294.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68b…e6d1backed No65c293$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes35c276.13$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.182839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes36c237.82$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.04911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ad…29b8backed No65c231$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes31c220$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.91711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-60.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5e…22f2backed No66c218.57$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c217$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.997466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes26c213.63$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.853724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes36c212.12$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.022642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No79c200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.081250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…579cbacked No64c200$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf00f…3ceebacked Yes36c200$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+174.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.591741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8854…070cbacked No67c198.04$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.79450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c182.94$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9929913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes36c167.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.651668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No63c166$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.62683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31d6…3f8dbacked Yes38c161.06$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.06666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+47.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c157$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2720242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes27c156$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.931827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8143…9698backed No65c154$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa548…1fd5backed Yes43c145.65$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.65580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+66.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xead7…49bfbacked No65c144.6$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33de…c7f4backed Yes37c128.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.47425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe331…0534backed Yes8c126$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes41c125$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0132…c314backed No72c124.86$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No72c121.07$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No62c113.48$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.751241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes27c112.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.521225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9a…a41fbacked No61c110$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ee…2590backed Yes9c110$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+325%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No64c108.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6417528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8461…c6e4backed Yes39c106.81$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.681216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d85…91b8backed Yes39c106$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick39cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes31c100.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.854621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No76c95.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.382161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…241dbacked No65c94$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x525e…ee0dbacked Yes27c90$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8af…11f4backed No61c89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.98366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No68c80.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.546139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes38c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No70c76.54$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.551631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Yes38c76.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes35c76.12$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.521546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x997c…7c81backed Yes35c75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…e6babacked No65c75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No75c73.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No68c72.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7bb…1df4backed Yes36c67.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x296c…9e76backed Yes37c65.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.63475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12e3…7b8fbacked No61c61.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.75650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.