Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2af3d55656518553e8999b663856157868c7d78f10e8b8e9000c5ee12479a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 16c | 31,233$5,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,111.86 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 10c | 6,859$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.02 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 11c | 1,748$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.45 | 234 | 30.3%71 W · 163 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…bfa1backed Yes | 10c | 1,585$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 10c | 1,403$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 1,300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 11c | 1,283$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,103$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…50b5backed Yes | 16c | 832.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed Yes | 7c | 717.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2,039.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 16c | 700.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…61aabacked Yes | 20c | 700$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +322.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 11c | 659.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 9c | 632.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…a632backed Yes | 20c | 501.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 7c | 415.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a451backed Yes | 16c | 338$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 316.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Yes | 14c | 283.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 11c | 249.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 10c | 213.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 11c | 152.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 152.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 133.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 15c | 127.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 17c | 114.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…bc18backed Yes | 18c | 110.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44c…dbc7backed Yes | 19c | 104.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0b…e325backed Yes | 20c | 101.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33de…c7f4backed Yes | 19c | 94.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 17c | 70.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in January?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in January?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.