TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfa34…02c5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Movies, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 57 out of 100; worst CS2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT3351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Shifters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.76
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.07
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed Nongshim Esports Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$24.38
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed Kiwoom DRX Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.43
LoL: Solary vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked Ici Japon Corp. Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.91
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs 7REX (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Seasonbacked 7REX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$20.37
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winnerbacked Oh My God · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.29
LoL: GAM Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seasonbacked GAM Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$37.1
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.48
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.98
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs MVK Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Seasonbacked DetonatioN FocusMe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.17
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.15
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.16
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports (BO1) - LIT Regular Seasonbacked Zena Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.77
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs ZennIT - Game 2 Winnerbacked ZennIT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.76
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+324.5%+$32.79
LoL: LUA Gaming vs GIANTX iTero - Game 1 Winnerbacked GIANTX iTero · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.94
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Team Heretics Academy (BO3) - LES Regular Seasonbacked Team Heretics Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$9.6
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Galions (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked ZYB Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.37
LoL: Ultra Prime vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+97.1%+$75.06
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffsbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$18.79
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Seasonbacked Dynasty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$20.95
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffsbacked Solary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+136.2%+$60.68
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed KT Rolster Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.18
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.18
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.52
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$19.14
Sunderland AFC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+49%+$4.93
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$105.35
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.13
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+525%+$135.24
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+96.1%+$52.43
AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$164.7
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$42.57
Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+92.3%+$25.92
Will West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+92.3%+$32.16
West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$76.43
West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20.75
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+112.9%+$138.42
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+316.7%+$56.24
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$124.13
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$15.47
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+54.1%+$88.87
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+137.1%+$78.06
All 22 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$5.69
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+45.6%+$7.52
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$26.67
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+121.4%+$28.52
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.08
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$6.15
Will "The Addams Family" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+101.4%+$55.07
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12.15
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+47%+$12.35
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+31.4%+$9.7
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+70.7%+$16.11
Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+31.2%+$21.29
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Bucksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.79
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+110.4%+$406.21
Cavaliers vs. Clippersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Bulls vs. Bucksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22.42
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+63.2%+$7.36
Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.81
All 6 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+222.2%+$164.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+218.2%+$23.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked Global Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$20.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.