Movies · resolved market
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eb9bbbfed2f886d045afda408db7d9e2404c684280419c1ff7ba7c4430e13c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 14c | 5,281$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.11 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked No | 12c | 2,958$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 15c | 2,906$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.11 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 19c | 2,290$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.17 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,153$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 69c | 1,111$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.85 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 13c | 1,026$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8b…11b1backed No | 2c | 950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 9c | 916.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 77c | 860.48$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.94 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53d…4346backed No | 2c | 807.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 11c | 653.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…d5c6backed Yes | 73c | 499.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 11c | 471.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 441.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 12c | 395$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 15c | 388.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…6338backed Yes | 76c | 330.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 11c | 307.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 293.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 240.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed No | 15c | 228.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 217.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed No | 11c | 198.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 42c | 160$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 17c | 141.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 13c | 132.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…aef7backed Yes | 75c | 121.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 21c | 118.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 78c | 117.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 13c | 117.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked No | 20c | 106.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…2bdcbacked No | 15c | 100.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed No | 13c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked No | 21c | 88.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…321ebacked No | 21c | 50.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 71c | 48.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…e577backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…5676backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 76c | 34.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3a…9555backed Yes | 77c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…98c6backed Yes | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed Yes | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked Yes | 72c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Love on the Spectrum: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.