Movies · resolved market
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff91ba0146b8de9c85e4158ab180f95bf7e5d66e840298b4063927a8901e0538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 16c | 5,944$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.4 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 3c | 2,524$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,499$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.09 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 14c | 2,373$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.98 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,066$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.08 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 3c | 2,007$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 10c | 1,521$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…59d5backed Yes | 3c | 914.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 11c | 799.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 615.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…b054backed No | 80c | 565.74$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 7c | 563.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b3…7339backed Yes | 19c | 518.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 411.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 11c | 357.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 282.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 269.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 6c | 254.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…d6c1backed Yes | 11c | 236$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 14c | 180.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 8c | 153$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 9c | 152.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…6a6abacked Yes | 23c | 130.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 9c | 124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…2406backed Yes | 14c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 14c | 78.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 71c | 52.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 35.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe011…31b1backed No | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Love on the Spectrum: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.