Movies · resolved market
Will "The Addams Family" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefda80678fdedf6b3ff126d3cf2d976c5e8b59e8ec6aee78d62bfb066028c161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa51…8cc2backed Yes | 77c | 12,299$9,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,470.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b7…0d89backed No | 23c | 12,175$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,374.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…ee20backed Yes | 6c | 2,232$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 69c | 983.06$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.36 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 15c | 884.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 805$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…0397backed Yes | 54c | 485.42$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 8c | 406$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…3ffabacked Yes | 7c | 396$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 358.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes | 10c | 352$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 35c | 342.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 21c | 331.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 284.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…175bbacked No | 55c | 277.84$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 17c | 277.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 272.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 23c | 271.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 41c | 220$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…6520backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 16c | 170.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 66c | 130.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed Yes | 44c | 124.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…6788backed No | 23c | 124$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +600.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed No | 50c | 109.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 62c | 101$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…26e5backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…756cbacked Yes | 21c | 70.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 31c | 46.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 58c | 41.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 37.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 66c | 33.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 56c | 32.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 31.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 59c | 29.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 27.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Addams Family" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Fall" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Prometheus" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Addams Family 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.