Movies · resolved market
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e8140db3248eccab39148172da7d2f36bcdc92f1c1caca2bd7df170c4234311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed Yes | 48c | 3,895$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 53c | 1,033$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.91 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 51c | 924.01$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.32 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 30c | 348.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 50c | 297$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 7c | 294.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 8c | 289.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 50c | 211.42$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 199.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed No | 62c | 69.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 50c | 62.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Age of Attraction" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.