Movies · resolved market
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2acdd73bcbe2a6be50264f68b753c15c914cfa70812bc033ef3ed635a6a68d86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,939 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 1,024$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.9wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -60%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 27c | 692.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.21 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 20c | 676.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.34 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 560.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.46 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 58c | 483.71$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.61 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 34c | 455.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.91 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…9db8backed Yes | 76c | 400.79$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 29c | 348.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.68 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 25c | 348.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 35c | 314.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.97 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed Yes | 80c | 270.02$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…6338backed Yes | 31c | 205.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 33c | 132.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 34c | 129.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 22c | 91.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 34c | 84.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 80.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014a…aa8dbacked Yes | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed Yes | 45c | 52.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 56c | 47.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 44.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…d141backed Yes | 45c | 44.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…6a6abacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 39c | 25.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…bfe4backed Yes | 68c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bf…4bbfbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Age of Attraction" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.