Movies · resolved market
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3567c80c35e0b4c62bbc2ba263f7fad659d849e404128f4a2fbfe76e12435f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed Yes | 3c | 40,457$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.11 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…21babacked Yes | 1c | 3,580$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 2c | 844.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 3c | 799.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 24c | 776.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed No | 75c | 632.76$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.03 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 12c | 605$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 579.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 539.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 72c | 438.63$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 30c | 388.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5828backed Yes | 3c | 380.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 344.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…c125backed Yes | 26c | 327.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 12c | 327$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…f931backed Yes | 6c | 258.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 73c | 245$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 62c | 189.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…6c64backed Yes | 64c | 157.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 139.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…4f9ebacked No | 25c | 124.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555d…5523backed Yes | 9c | 115.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…deabbacked Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…aaebbacked Yes | 19c | 103.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049d…102abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…ba2bbacked Yes | 40c | 77.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…d01ebacked No | 75c | 73.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…d20bbacked Yes | 33c | 73.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…9076backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 19c | 59.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…d3d5backed No | 65c | 48.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…ab2cbacked Yes | 31c | 45.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 44.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…0292backed Yes | 40c | 44.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…797abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed No | 68c | 38.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb246…29efbacked Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…1a1abacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6e…2a77backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4251…b98cbacked No | 75c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "How to Get to Heaven from Belfast" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Is It Cake? Valentines" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.