Movies · resolved market
Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b3db71fb129e25463a6a0f41ef3dd93c6c3fbb6c117ff9476ec63e98a561e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 13c | 2,829$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.15 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes | 3c | 2,571$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 20c | 2,054$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 79c | 1,465$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…a7cebacked Yes | 2c | 958.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 75c | 762.07$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 15c | 602.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 422.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 389$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…e9a5backed Yes | 4c | 355.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 4c | 336$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 23c | 321$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8df…d422backed Yes | 18c | 298$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…9984backed Yes | 8c | 297.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…c125backed Yes | 39c | 267.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…4a52backed Yes | 12c | 259.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 241.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x394e…c26abacked Yes | 11c | 223.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…79c5backed Yes | 8c | 216.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8649backed Yes | 5c | 215.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 61c | 207$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…fdb3backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 9c | 163.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…aaebbacked Yes | 19c | 161.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…0caabacked Yes | 18c | 111.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 70c | 100.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049d…102abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c26…7a7abacked Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…deabbacked Yes | 20c | 83.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 61c | 80.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…5e3dbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4251…b98cbacked Yes | 20c | 71.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…25a3backed Yes | 20c | 66.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 76c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e4abbacked Yes | 18c | 59.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 20c | 58.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…7121backed Yes | 24c | 52.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…175bbacked Yes | 31c | 48.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…1a1abacked Yes | 42c | 47.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…e036backed No | 80c | 44.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 78c | 39.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 78c | 33.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf349…c713backed Yes | 40c | 32.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c02…db50backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…012ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…b06abacked No | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 60c | 20.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "How to Get to Heaven from Belfast" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Is It Cake? Valentines" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.