Movies · resolved market
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcefbcbda5debf689e58611569893e67af2bed8825c14b71eaa96fbef4ad7a695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfb5…21babacked Yes | 1c | 4,166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…c125backed Yes | 2c | 2,466$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 1c | 1,251$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…8330backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 1c | 918$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…4747backed Yes | 2c | 820.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…4069backed Yes | 7c | 687.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af7…e793backed Yes | 5c | 561.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…fdb3backed Yes | 2c | 545.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 7c | 465.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…deabbacked Yes | 3c | 435.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5828backed Yes | 3c | 428.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…f957backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555d…5523backed Yes | 4c | 335.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba39…0c87backed Yes | 4c | 315.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…62ddbacked Yes | 8c | 311.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…d50abacked Yes | 14c | 110.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8649backed Yes | 9c | 107.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…a7cebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "How to Get to Heaven from Belfast" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Is It Cake? Valentines" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.