TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Global Esportsof Gen.G Esports, Global Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$175,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba38…e406backed Global Esports44c35,000$15,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,749.9454751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Gen.G Esports57c33,800$19,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,129.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3522…188fbacked Global Esports44c19,983$8,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,190.583342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Global Esports65c16,357$10,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,798.7624732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked Gen.G Esports9c16,345$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4881631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Gen.G Esports56c10,350$5,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7961338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab80…ffc0backed Gen.G Esports79c8,827$6,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,988.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2606…ba10backed Global Esports43c8,323$3,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,744.191675%12 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+60.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Gen.G Esports58c5,155$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00011458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Global Esports43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8504647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Global Esports45c4,599$2,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.3213345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Global Esports44c4,000$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,24026738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Gen.G Esports56c3,434$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.829644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked Gen.G Esports57c3,318$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Gen.G Esports55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.988638.4%33 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Global Esports57c2,828$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.7345033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Gen.G Esports56c2,561$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Global Esports43c2,500$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.971838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gen.G Esports55c2,279$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.2224946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked Gen.G Esports55c2,173$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2007659.2%45 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Gen.G Esports56c2,070$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd500…4568backed Global Esports44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+71.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Global Esports69c1,969$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.9588844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8df…83dcbacked Gen.G Esports57c1,769$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Global Esports43c1,677$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.5833153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Global Esports62c1,641$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.6217463.8%111 W · 63 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Global Esports45c1,439$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.873754.1%20 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Gen.G Esports56c1,351$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.4118457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Global Esports44c1,328$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.6833348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Global Esports43c1,150$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.5810551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Global Esports43c1,142$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.654641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Global Esports45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.115162.7%32 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Gen.G Esports56c1,100$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61623447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G Esports55c1,049$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.851172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Gen.G Esports56c1,004$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.539845.9%45 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Gen.G Esports53c1,001$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.5353355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Global Esports45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5503930.8%12 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Global Esports44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gen.G Esports53c999$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.4756357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Gen.G Esports48c973.4$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.4570251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Gen.G Esports57c908$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.632141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Gen.G Esports56c900$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Gen.G Esports56c881.23$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.131540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Gen.G Esports56c821.05$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.743748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Gen.G Esports55c800$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44053442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Gen.G Esports56c748.39$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.17342.5%31 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Global Esports68c745.01$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.47433.8%25 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Global Esports55c713.49$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3191,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Gen.G Esports55c672$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.3226051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gen.G Esports36c669.38$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked Global Esports50c659.24$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.4325444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Gen.G Esports35c653$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0123644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0563…340dbacked Gen.G Esports56c624.68$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.822060%12 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Gen.G Esports56c599$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.441323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.33per pick56cpaid-59.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x73e6…5cb1backed Global Esports46c598.39$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.091154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Global Esports40c595.53$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.3278162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Gen.G Esports56c588.11$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4422352.9%118 W · 105 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Gen.G Esports57c579.22$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.317353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Global Esports54c578$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.557252.8%38 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Global Esports31c555.72$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.8526634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Gen.G Esports56c535.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Global Esports61c535$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.5810840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Global Esports44c519.62$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.6234253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Gen.G Esports54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27015553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Global Esports61c488$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2237545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Global Esports55c473.58$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.4662156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Gen.G Esports55c459.99$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9928247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d2ffbacked Gen.G Esports56c458.93$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Gen.G Esports56c458.93$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…6e26backed Gen.G Esports56c457.82$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeac5…cab7backed Global Esports45c444.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.567948.1%38 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked Gen.G Esports22c431.51$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.897051.4%36 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Gen.G Esports56c421.04$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.781540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b04…cf8bbacked Gen.G Esports54c399.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Global Esports64c369$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0635142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Gen.G Esports56c362.6$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.931040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Gen.G Esports56c350$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1963938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed Gen.G Esports56c339.29$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Gen.G Esports59c336.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002638.5%10 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-38%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Gen.G Esports21c326.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.141,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Gen.G Esports55c305.68$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1886747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Gen.G Esports56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16861035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1234…c1bbbacked Gen.G Esports56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Global Esports56c292$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0117537.7%66 W · 109 L-14.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x465b…41c3backed Global Esports40c275$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1653135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Gen.G Esports56c267.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Gen.G Esports57c264$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.481127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-49%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5ee…eb4fbacked Global Esports41c262.74$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.033455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x78e5…e9b5backed Gen.G Esports38c261.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x537d…615bbacked Gen.G Esports56c250$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Gen.G Esports55c250$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.520840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Gen.G Esports54c244.74$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Gen.G Esports56c244.64$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13715343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc5…b698backed Gen.G Esports60c239.15$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1445050%25 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Gen.G Esports56c231.96$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.99052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Gen.G Esports56c221.56$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.983540%14 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked Global Esports46c218.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.372650%13 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Gen.G Esports25c208.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6577929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked Gen.G Esports56c206.8$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.812152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Gen.G Esports55c201.08$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.