Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff8bf331f7ddbdd2e92e27dcd273612ec45fefde3cf70039c4f043eaec0000c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 32c | 9,558$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.64 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 30c | 4,019$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.1 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 2,320$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.4 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 65c | 2,310$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.13 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 66c | 1,358$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.92 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 32c | 1,127$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 28c | 1,041$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.13 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 67c | 996.54$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.82 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 895.48$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.97 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 66c | 814.97$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.28 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 757.25$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.51 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 25c | 613.16$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.04 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 600$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 35c | 445.43$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 72c | 425.55$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 73c | 375.89$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed Yes | 28c | 350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 70c | 343.25$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 25c | 322$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 24c | 319.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 32c | 297$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…1244backed Yes | 24c | 230.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…92b1backed Yes | 36c | 195$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 191.66$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 165.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 68c | 160.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 34c | 158.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 158.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 35c | 130.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked No | 78c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…3185backed Yes | 27c | 110.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbf…edf5backed Yes | 26c | 110.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 32c | 100.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7da…5edfbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…02c5backed No | 65c | 96.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…536bbacked No | 76c | 93.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 66c | 89.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…bc18backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 73c | 74.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 25c | 71.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed No | 69c | 68.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 34c | 68.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 66.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…b48cbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 57.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b7…8d43backed Yes | 30c | 54.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Yes | 55c | 50.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 50.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 77c | 43.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d65…4d18backed Yes | 25c | 40.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes | 35c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…e8e3backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…c5f6backed No | 72c | 33.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28cf…82d3backed No | 71c | 31.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0405…ec20backed No | 76c | 31.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…05a5backed No | 71c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…5dbbbacked No | 78c | 27.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…f82abacked No | 76c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 67c | 22.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9aa…9501backed No | 77c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…e9c6backed No | 73c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4c…651fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…adf5backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ee…e46ebacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d2…98e3backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in January?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.