TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes24c23,424$5,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,686.322025%5 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes25c23,290$5,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,809.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes24c19,949$4,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,734.253228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No76c16,199$12,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.922433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No74c7,852$5,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010.1212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No76c5,449$4,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.252934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No74c5,296$3,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.98632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed No77c4,889$3,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.38636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No75c3,986$2,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.2312820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked No76c3,773$2,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.493426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No76c3,419$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.436023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes25c2,981$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.423522.9%8 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes26c2,684$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.97030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0457…a72fbacked Yes22c2,043$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.3580%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c1,998$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.4915148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes17c1,335$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-68.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c1,281$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4719931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No77c1,190$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed No76c1,035$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.442334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes26c1,028$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1214325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes25c1,021$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.351827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+138.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef8…7291backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed No75c973$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.711533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6768…692dbacked Yes27c945.69$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.921450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked No74c913.91$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.62580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb225…d86bbacked Yes24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes23c768.94$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5110836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No79c732.9$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9723330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…de26backed No79c676.38$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c617.82$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.5411359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed No73c549.97$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.956523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes22c499.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+34.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No71c499.73$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.921442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95dc…6b74backed No77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.613100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No75c374.67$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.67850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ee…4b33backed No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186d…b48cbacked Yes25c260.88$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8461…c6e4backed Yes29c259.87$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.161216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No77c251.48$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.652839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No76c249.45$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.935330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde1c…fb66backed No75c248$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb56d…d20bbacked Yes23c240$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes24c214.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6130918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf6…7521backed Yes23c199.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No76c198.39$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7617528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe506…6be0backed Yes14c197$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes22c177.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8854…070cbacked No76c176.5$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes27c166.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.961711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-60.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes25c161.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes26c149.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No76c145.36$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.413850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd056…2937backed No74c140$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes11c132$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6921…7700backed No79c126.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes22c125.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2a…79f3backed No75c103$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x884c…b743backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c98.33$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.516139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No74c95.4$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes39c94.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.624254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked No80c90.46$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed No80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes15c88.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+969.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa548…1fd5backed No75c82.67$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.67580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+66.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No74c76.23$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No72c76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.967466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ac1…fe20backed No76c73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0373…ff0dbacked Yes23c67.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes25c66.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.674621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked No77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.941030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c59.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2514024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes27c55.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8790%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes23c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5db…f0e4backed No76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x296c…9e76backed No77c52.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.56126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbf…2ba4backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28cd…d99abacked No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb22b…b3c3backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5ccfbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8680…3390backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54cc…7c9dbacked No78c48.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes26c47.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79eb…9c72backed Yes32c47.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23f6…e7b2backed No77c35.96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No66c34.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.78875%6 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2420242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcbd…d3fdbacked No76c31.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.