Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8253528e603b5cabb8ab45d1e1209bda57aa2a9f6f0d61aba7ad0a38147a86ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 38c | 11,299$4,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,026.6 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 33c | 3,300$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.57 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 2,324$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.84 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 60c | 1,741$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.5 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 59c | 1,597$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.21 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 62c | 1,359$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.14 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,128$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,023$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.39 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e56…0833backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 958.35$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.98 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 36c | 830.8$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.71 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 41c | 766.28$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 37c | 603.48$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 35c | 599.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 26c | 573.69$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.53 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Yes | 30c | 517.15$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 40c | 499.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 36c | 433.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.02 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed Yes | 43c | 432.12$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed Yes | 40c | 267.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 221.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 58c | 219.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…070cbacked No | 68c | 214.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 199.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…92b1backed Yes | 43c | 189$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 30c | 161.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…2937backed No | 57c | 153$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed Yes | 42c | 146$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 40c | 144.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 132.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 35c | 116.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 35c | 116.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 30c | 91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 37c | 85.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 84.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 38c | 82.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 28c | 76.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…1244backed Yes | 39c | 76.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes | 39c | 70.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 68.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 36c | 61.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +969.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…3390backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 45.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…b45ebacked No | 62c | 43.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6e…e995backed Yes | 40c | 43.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…e8efbacked Yes | 40c | 42.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb7…0345backed Yes | 43c | 37.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…b792backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…e8e3backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc346…345fbacked No | 59c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…557fbacked No | 64c | 32.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…0101backed Yes | 40c | 29.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897b…274ebacked Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296c…9e76backed Yes | 41c | 27.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed No | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…7557backed No | 68c | 21.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…a41fbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…d99cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54cc…7c9dbacked No | 68c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…82f7backed No | 63c | 17.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9039…5b2abacked No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8472backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…6635backed No | 74c | 13.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in January?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.