Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892231e7fd3ac31a3b321002f909e011180b709af074808908d27a2a32a7b546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 8c | 7,233$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.04 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,370$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.35 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 2,340$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.73 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 7c | 2,090$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,565$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 7c | 1,250$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 8c | 800.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 7c | 787.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 705.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 8c | 700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…e6f2backed Yes | 8c | 688$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 518.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 12c | 497.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 490.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 8c | 370.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +969.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…92b1backed Yes | 9c | 340$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 10c | 328.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…926abacked Yes | 8c | 316.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 8c | 314.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…dff2backed Yes | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 9c | 226.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…c0e6backed Yes | 10c | 219.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Yes | 8c | 189.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…be16backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…5e8abacked Yes | 9c | 148.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 141.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 41.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in January?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.