TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$723,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $723,830 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 691 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddae…33ccbacked No28c69,466$19,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,015.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07aa…b60abacked No27c65,843$17,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,065.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+171.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes46c24,911$11,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,564.1129926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…38a4backed Yes72c24,671$17,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,763.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a0…befebacked Yes72c23,763$17,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,109.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19cf…ce7bbacked Yes73c22,917$16,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,729.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked No40c22,222$8,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,333.19850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x688f…bc87backed Yes73c22,100$16,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,13310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c91…8aefbacked Yes72c21,236$15,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,289.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaff…de3bbacked Yes73c20,826$15,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,202.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes46c18,091$8,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,284.751936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes70c17,233$12,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,065.95612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd63c…2507backed Yes23c12,680$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes29c11,198$3,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,286.6817821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aae…4876backed Yes25c10,600$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes36c9,890$3,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,542.047136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes71c7,892$5,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,592.621457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+73.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes75c7,796$5,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,830.412626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes75c7,791$5,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,875.8817751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes34c7,547$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.747936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd544…4d5ebacked No70c7,108$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.381361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c6,062$3,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.8336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes60c6,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6004553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No25c5,893$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,419.431553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes74c5,347$3,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,973.992222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f49…bf8dbacked Yes78c4,162$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,266.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes22c4,093$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.3618344.3%81 W · 102 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57e5…b787backed No75c3,846$2,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bef…7591backed No75c3,719$2,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828c…95febacked No77c3,580$2,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067c…b2efbacked No77c3,250$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes57c3,152$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.1648236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5d…31b9backed No63c3,037$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.211643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fe…be0bbacked No75c3,035$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8691…afc1backed No77c3,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6901100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No64c2,999$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.272920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x737e…22fbbacked No77c2,850$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes76c2,384$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.350%0 W · 5 L-3.6wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x34cf…7188backed No56c2,260$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes10c2,200$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa36…7d37backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes72c1,785$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.223923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No52c1,678$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.1715641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked No8c1,650$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601729.4%5 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+344.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No72c1,596$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.312828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes22c1,595$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.046229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes73c1,486$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.6132924%79 W · 250 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes23c1,476$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No22c1,455$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.6223041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8a…b454backed Yes68c1,393$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+210.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No30c1,363$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.513354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No32c1,349$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.612548%12 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes18c1,318$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes51c1,313$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.0910632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes39c1,310$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.463935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes75c1,200$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes33c1,170$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.583636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes70c1,144$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes25c1,128$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.0523751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes67c1,023$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.8724634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes48c1,006$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.882347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No33c1,002$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.2816453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes76c1,000$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7553339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08fb…5338backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7505362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c999.97$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.9847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes43c946$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8526541.9%111 W · 154 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes55c933.52$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.598536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f33…0a32backed Yes53c921.95$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes51c896.4$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.235215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No62c894$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.0513040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa48a…fcd2backed No52c893$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+120.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed Yes67c875$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.251428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed No54c852$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No66c808$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.541729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes61c804.89$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.512938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3adcbacked No52c801$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcabf…fbe4backed Yes40c796.14$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes75c795$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.2519440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed Yes48c794$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.121330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa125…2db9backed Yes76c789.47$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…57edbacked No38c786.28$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed Yes48c774$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes39c763$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.572231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec4…1868backed No54c739.38$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes51c738$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.381625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No55c708.76$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.034930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed No25c706.98$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked Yes46c705$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.31330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe62…6d76backed No52c697$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No78c689.62$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2713130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed Yes27c674.99$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.251346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15f6…07f1backed No70c669.36$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ff…1f90backed Yes75c659$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No70c654.39$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1513337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed No73c654$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.581573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+46.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No33c651$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.172445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.