Movies · resolved market
Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfde18e33ff476af373d3820f9065ddffd6d179181ac71930e1c65456361531a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,655 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 5,024$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,705$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 4,097$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 63c | 3,316$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.4 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…4c0cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,161$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 1c | 3,095$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…4d28backed Yes | 7c | 2,887$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bd…970fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,793$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 1c | 2,550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 5c | 2,496$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,439$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,383$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,248$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9b62backed Yes | 1c | 2,128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…2b09backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…bd84backed Yes | 6c | 1,808$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,613$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,573$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,565$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 27c | 1,328$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.11 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 8c | 1,294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…4ef4backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f2…f1c9backed Yes | 1c | 1,015$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,002$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…e28abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 2c | 966.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 839.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 776$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.14 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 8c | 698.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 691.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 3c | 596$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 21c | 545.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed Yes | 5c | 482.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fe…95dabacked Yes | 5c | 469$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…be3fbacked Yes | 4c | 438$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…34ecbacked Yes | 2c | 406.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 8c | 387.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 387.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 372.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 361.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 8c | 349$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 9c | 308.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…9837backed Yes | 8c | 245.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70d…b098backed Yes | 9c | 244$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 4c | 239.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 33c | 211.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.52 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf071…cbcbbacked Yes | 21c | 190.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 73c | 173$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 55c | 151$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…3258backed Yes | 11c | 96.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…5792backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will 28 Years Later win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Anemone win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ballad of a Small Player win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1: The Movie win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.