TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5f5b…b598

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
233
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Lol, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 58 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT8536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 85 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$353.26
Will "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$70.13
Will "Lazarus" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+358.5%+$423.82
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+90.1%+$70.67
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.07
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$514.59
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+69.9%+$47.35
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$98.07
Will The Life of Chuck be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$509.95
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$230
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$898Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$898.1
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$78.1
Will A Minecraft Movie be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$291
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,877Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,877.31
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,335Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+88.1%+$5,583.42
Will Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$33.99
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,633Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,633.16
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$756Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$755.51
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$5,330Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+73.8%+$3,934.74
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$189.45
Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 93m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+578.7%+$144.19
Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" gross less than 125% of "The Senior"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.39
Will "Hamilton" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8.8m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$15.4
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $52m and $57m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.43
Showing 25 of 85 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST3964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Lol — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+25%+$111
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$143.32
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,833.06
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$3,328Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,328.44
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$66.93
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,451Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,450.75
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.29
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$804Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+28.3%+$227.48
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,680Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+28.3%+$474.77
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$4,415Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+124.5%+$5,495.14
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.11
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,418Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,418.34
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$20.35
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winnerbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.21
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,061Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+29.4%+$899.98
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$38.85
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$40.26
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$26.64
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$928Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$928.25
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$5,453Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$3,202.64
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1)backed FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$840Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+35.3%+$296.59
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,118Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+57.3%+$1,213.95
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$8,359Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$2,371.92
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1)backed Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$4,542Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+74.1%+$3,366.92
LoL: KT Rolster vs Movistar KOI (BO1)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+47.9%+$70.27
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.14
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$132.81
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.38
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.72
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+47%+$22.7
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.98
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$37.2
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$63
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.8
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$844Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$266.64
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+80%+$57.96
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.76
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.81
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$45.51
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.96
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.72
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$34.1
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.95
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$344.1
Spread: England (-3.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.31
Spread: England (-2.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.45
Spread: Portugal (-4.5)backed Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$195.36
Spread: France (-5.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.61
Spread: France (-4.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.81
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.32
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT2755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,184.18
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$319.52
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.26
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$181.92
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.86
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$86.58
Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$11.52
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$196.47
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$106.56
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Hear Our Voice win Britain's Got Talent 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.78
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+92.1%+$151.16
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,550Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+111.9%+$1,734.79
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$671.18
Will United Kingdom finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.41
Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.05
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+25.6%+$10
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,696Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+30%+$808.14
Will Australia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$719.49
Will Czechia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+25%+$10
Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$367.05
Will Armenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+69.6%+$50.84
Will Lithuania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$267.16
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT2425%6 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$268.52
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.96
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.4
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$42
Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$111
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.47
Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$303.66
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$696Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+80%+$557.18
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+51.6%+$137.18
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.85
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,099.19
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.26
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.75
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Presidential Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$432.91
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.21
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$3,995Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+374.6%+$14,965.18
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11,996Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$11,996.18
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,171.81
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+48.5%+$242.6
Will Han Dong-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$776Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+28.2%+$218.9
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.3
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,395Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+100.1%+$1,395.72
Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.9
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$141
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,505Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35.5%+$533.42
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.23
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$45.65
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$28.05
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT+48.7%+$39.2
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+191%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+49.1%+$545.81
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$662.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+103.7%+$310.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.