World Politics · resolved market
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e0839e06a1e7b83dc6c27aaa14501e6a6d44f89c2d160792941e69e20e24ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,215,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,128,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,215,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 531,578$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.9 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 0c | 236,171$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.85 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 213,466$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.14 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed Yes | 0c | 199,999$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 0c | 182,608$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes | 0c | 167,087$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.19 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 76,381$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.45 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9e24backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 39,556$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 36,999$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 29,947$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…30acbacked Yes | 0c | 25,010$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 22,969$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 16,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,874$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 0c | 14,868$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,051$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 0c | 10,102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,957$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 89 | 2.2%2 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 0c | 9,479$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…c1bdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,438$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8929backed Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc6…bcbabacked Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…967ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…abd7backed Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…9bccbacked Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…abbbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72a…2029backed Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…de2bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…62acbacked Yes | 0c | 5,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,903$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…3f58backed Yes | 0c | 3,900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…64b3backed Yes | 1c | 3,880$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb486…8bffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f90…f112backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionthis page
- Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionYes won
- Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.