World Politics · resolved market
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9801c96bd2b204fa3f5970893bfed329d6609ad1e1955083c1cb772a06adac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,542,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,869,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,542,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 532,967$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.17 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 371,174$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.52 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 308,638$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.78 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 0c | 245,904$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.93 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes | 0c | 174,947$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.95 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6421backed Yes | 0c | 122,158$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.47 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 111,662$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 54,949$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 32,999$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 23,800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…5f3abacked Yes | 0c | 22,659$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…d9b6backed Yes | 0c | 22,597$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…b148backed Yes | 0c | 17,425$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 89 | 2.2%2 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 0c | 15,095$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,499$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…094fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,959$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed4…c3b5backed Yes | 0c | 11,959$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…fe3cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,959$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…f31abacked Yes | 0c | 11,959$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…51ccbacked Yes | 0c | 11,959$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…37cdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,959$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…2e67backed Yes | 0c | 11,939$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…9dc1backed Yes | 0c | 11,493$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…a7d5backed Yes | 0c | 11,493$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd6…2b30backed Yes | 0c | 11,493$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 11,049$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fe…8a80backed Yes | 0c | 8,391$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7363…86e8backed Yes | 0c | 8,391$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…094ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,343$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…a977backed Yes | 0c | 8,343$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…316ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…4a5cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…8150backed Yes | 0c | 7,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…fd6ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…7151backed Yes | 0c | 7,791$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…ca7fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,788$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…88dfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,785$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…ed1ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,785$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…80adbacked Yes | 0c | 7,524$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee4…6baebacked Yes | 0c | 7,037$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f5…4937backed Yes | 0c | 7,015$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…bdfcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,684$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…f88abacked Yes | 0c | 6,651$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f0…34ecbacked Yes | 0c | 6,572$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…db3abacked Yes | 0c | 6,295$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…0a5fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,278$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…4ce2backed Yes | 0c | 6,235$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…e3d3backed Yes | 0c | 6,189$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…baf3backed Yes | 0c | 6,072$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9e24backed Yes | 0c | 6,052$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…5712backed Yes | 0c | 5,724$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…0cc5backed Yes | 0c | 5,681$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…0a92backed Yes | 0c | 5,664$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702f…1d50backed Yes | 0c | 5,421$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…17a5backed Yes | 0c | 5,387$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…e19ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db6…4f15backed Yes | 0c | 4,331$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaee…e27abacked Yes | 0c | 3,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c46…0fe7backed Yes | 0c | 3,883$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…4497backed Yes | 0c | 3,487$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc664…8ca9backed Yes | 0c | 3,428$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…8131backed Yes | 0c | 3,405$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…516dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionthis page
- Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionYes won
- Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
- Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.