TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,401,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,328,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,401,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c383,664$1,096 inLost-$1,095.66460%0 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes0c252,413$779 inLost-$779.07140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c211,451$751 inLost-$750.99130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c175,229$175 inLost-$175.2390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c156,871$357 inLost-$356.694440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes0c127,043$127 inLost-$127.04280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Yes0c97,246$194 inLost-$194.49140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c33,995$34 inLost-$33.99200%0 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c30,050$30 inLost-$30.1326.3%2 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick2cpaid-66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes0c25,500$64 inLost-$64.4120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…9e24backed Yes0c25,000$59 inLost-$59.26100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c20,963$22 inLost-$21.6550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c20,163$20 inLost-$20.161100%0 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$20460%0 W · 46 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes0c17,000$24 inLost-$24583.4%2 W · 56 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa164…4686backed Yes0c9,931$40 inLost-$39.7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc961…b544backed Yes0c5,257$11 inLost-$10.5160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c5,010$18 inLost-$17.651664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf225…7b2dbacked Yes0c4,692$14 inLost-$14.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0b…a541backed Yes0c4,686$14 inLost-$14.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.