Music · resolved market
Will Australia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd447e7e32927d0e4c42d5660cf6c6700176f07bfb6b86e6d356acf3f7e36e8c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecde…c846backed No | 20c | 1,592$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.55 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 14c | 1,385$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.94 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 19c | 920.98$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.48 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 79c | 909.74$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.49 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 15c | 764.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.36 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 80c | 690.1$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.93 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed No | 23c | 640.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.9 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes | 74c | 611$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.32 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 471.9$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…b409backed No | 22c | 459.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed No | 15c | 443.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.83 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 76c | 426.83$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.39 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 18c | 395.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.28 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 14c | 378.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.28 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 15c | 343.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.24 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed No | 16c | 305.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.58 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 79c | 292.1$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.87 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 20c | 285$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 20c | 245.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 21c | 208$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 16c | 197.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 190.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…1698backed Yes | 77c | 183$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 20c | 165.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 23c | 148.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e0…19b9backed No | 24c | 83.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 55c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…7a33backed Yes | 79c | 16.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 79c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Armenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Czechia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Greece qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Ireland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Malta qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Serbia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.