TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Armenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ef5…6119backed Yes39c34,177$13,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,847.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x328d…d451backed No61c34,177$20,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,847.9720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No60c5,372$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.655145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes40c3,415$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No57c2,296$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.046642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No56c2,096$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.423839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No39c1,443$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.834643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd794…efe1backed Yes40c1,409$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.61625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes41c1,222$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.822927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8e…0824backed Yes45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1296…0d1fbacked Yes45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4f7…382ebacked No55c955$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6e…07c3backed Yes45c915$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick43cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcb…36f0backed Yes63c914.93$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.931241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No40c912.61$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.64746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes45c880.88$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.867626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1021…2e13backed No55c660$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f67…15c4backed No56c660$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes48c623.51$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.511346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9873…7cc5backed No65c619.12$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6835backed Yes66c509.99$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.661250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes48c493.42$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.118140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb35e…7cc4backed No53c473.82$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes56c473.49$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.392638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed No57c465.53$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.054344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes46c409.15$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.9414835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4985…28bdbacked No55c379$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No55c314.58$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.583444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No55c302.8$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5912835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e00…c7dcbacked No55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fed…3553backed No55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No55c293.84$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.617740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No59c262$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.863545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No61c260.75$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.674946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes53c255.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.054447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes48c245.48$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12824732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked No54c221.78$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes49c206.83$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3719939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes45c201.39$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.392733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes50c198.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.633836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No59c196.91$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.694731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No60c195.02$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172015%3 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-77.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes52c187.52$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.424953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked No50c185.45$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.273941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No62c164.25$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.84944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.43429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked Yes41c141.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.794928.6%14 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No57c135$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.995738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No40c129.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.64129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes59c123.92$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.842755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd470…783ebacked No53c122.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed Yes41c121$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.391838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked No54c100.86$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.468234.1%28 W · 54 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No61c87.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.743842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes40c87.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.57139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bb…f862backed Yes45c85.93$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No54c82.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.077345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No44c79.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352020%4 W · 16 L-5.7wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x36cd…b3f7backed Yes53c76.43$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No56c76.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.973438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b3…526abacked Yes45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…6ee3backed No37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.92751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+53.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecde…c846backed Yes44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.65030%15 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…58f8backed No54c56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No48c55.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.782356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.567549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes37c55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.79333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x915c…c1a9backed Yes36c54.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No39c53.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.897343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No60c52.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2915119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e0…19b9backed Yes61c50.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.684259.5%25 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc24…3502backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No41c46.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.253450%17 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e0…8755backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde74…e866backed No43c45.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441656.3%9 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.35per pick21cpaid+237.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.442343.5%10 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick22cpaid+123.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x38c7…c88fbacked Yes47c42.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes36c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.244141.5%17 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e27…d603backed No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb9…f3ebbacked No63c39.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No42c38.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1620…f529backed Yes53c37.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.436028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No52c36.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192070%14 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+93.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x50bc…63dabacked No43c35.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x863d…4770backed No58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…c633backed Yes61c34.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.431338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes46c33.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.872356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5667…1d5bbacked Yes61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No38c31.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.093154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ac…63b9backed Yes44c31.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef79…2ebdbacked No63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee65…24d9backed No64c31.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-54.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d63…a513backed Yes47c30.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d1…3377backed Yes55c27.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x989d…03c0backed No54c27.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.