Music · resolved market
Will Lithuania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5262507838bd0c9a634d2027b13ca7c81624fa79e0ec5a3b2ac3eca2065e4091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 70c | 2,153$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.71 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…c648backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…de78backed Yes | 78c | 995$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 65c | 970.19$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.74 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6835backed No | 34c | 891$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 32c | 833.18$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.16 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 24c | 736.06$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.44 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…dc75backed No | 48c | 733$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 78c | 531.36$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 74c | 523.55$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 26c | 511.7$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed No | 44c | 502$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed Yes | 70c | 427.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…b409backed No | 25c | 426.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 67c | 377.59$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 74c | 347.87$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 72c | 339.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 21c | 319.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 317.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 71c | 275.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fc…7a07backed Yes | 73c | 272.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 72c | 271.25$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 22c | 260.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242b…de00backed Yes | 78c | 256.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 80c | 250.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked No | 26c | 235.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 77c | 229.15$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e0…19b9backed No | 36c | 222.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 36c | 210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 40c | 199.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 69c | 189$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…42c0backed No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…2518backed No | 29c | 167.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 68c | 128.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcb…36f0backed No | 28c | 121.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed No | 35c | 121$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 27c | 119.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…f1b8backed No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…3a04backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed No | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…23cabacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 80c | 72.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…25eebacked Yes | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 24c | 60.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x915c…c1a9backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 24c | 55.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…c633backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…d8a1backed No | 27c | 48.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 68c | 45.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Yes | 77c | 40.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…5838backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 45c | 28.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…8c7abacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2f…1e8fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…5655backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 75c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lithuania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Armenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Australia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Czechia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Greece qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Ireland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Malta qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Serbia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.