TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$230,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad8f…b090backed Yes64c34,577$22,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,447.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebb…ea5cbacked No36c34,577$12,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,447.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef5…6119backed No46c29,433$13,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,539.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…d45fbacked Yes54c29,433$15,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,539.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd5…cd21backed Yes63c23,202$14,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,584.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98b0…1d3fbacked No37c23,202$8,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,584.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No31c23,137$7,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,182.285145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes73c5,095$3,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.13941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes66c4,370$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.152524%6 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No26c3,721$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.522927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes59c3,621$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.616642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x141e…8c87backed Yes76c2,691$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e69…d84bbacked Yes62c1,622$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No26c1,541$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.487723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes76c1,416$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.599335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Yes66c1,120$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.242015%3 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-77.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes66c1,114$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.86253.2%33 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6d3…a093backed Yes76c1,100$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed No23c1,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes68c990.16$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.617626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb251…03cebacked No43c895$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No17c809.55$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.224643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x144d…f0f2backed Yes58c775$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa890…1c30backed Yes58c765$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bbe…088dbacked Yes68c736.92$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.961050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bd…2b47backed No42c665$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e00…c7dcbacked No43c635$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.0540%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe0…37adbacked No42c635$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.740%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cfe…b88ebacked Yes57c605$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes66c500.39$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.844129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No30c499.58$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.784946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…5aacbacked Yes59c461.86$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No21c458.59$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.187740.3%31 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed Yes79c434.95$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No32c416.56$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.632245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes72c402.74$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.422540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No32c400$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.924440.9%18 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes58c350$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0b0…cdd9backed Yes57c345$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa248…04f3backed Yes76c300$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x242b…de00backed Yes67c297.89$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.891241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes45c288.09$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8814835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes59c250$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.794344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked No23c221$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.832638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1021…2e13backed Yes58c220$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd470…783ebacked No21c217.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.832040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes78c211$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.641553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f1…42c0backed No24c204.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcafb…05f0backed Yes64c181.54$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes79c179.64$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.133429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes75c178.56$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.734953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No18c170.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.653438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes76c163.59$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.854447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No23c160.17$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6524732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c79…eb42backed No43c160$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9500…ebbcbacked No42c160$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6457…834fbacked Yes58c155$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c2…3888backed No42c145$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5df…15edbacked No43c145$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes57c135.02$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6919939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No25c133.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.261717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked No22c130$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd794…efe1backed Yes58c125$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No47c121.63$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.846533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0faf…e902backed No42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No19c118.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.554141.5%17 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xce4c…a1fcbacked Yes65c113$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.55837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No29c112.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.545554.5%30 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No33c107.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.624731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417027.1%19 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+94.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f67…15c4backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb942…dd9cbacked Yes56c98.55$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8449…80aebacked No47c98.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes77c95$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.852755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8532…d203backed No42c95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes75c93.44$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No54c91.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.231258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes59c88.14$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.142020%4 W · 16 L-5.7wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No37c88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No42c82.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.333545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No36c81.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.415238.5%20 W · 32 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes77c81.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6812835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes55c78.01$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.832356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed Yes64c77.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.754240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No55c75.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3414938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed No41c75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c70.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6222640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked No23c69.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.094526.7%12 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+191.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf701…5d7abacked Yes77c69.95$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes57c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.951827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes64c64.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.435738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Yes66c60.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.58425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacad…3a3abacked Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3985…cfebbacked Yes75c54.96$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.47666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+56.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e27…d603backed No29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.53831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe966…c1c2backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113348.5%16 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.