Music · resolved market
Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d95425b0b60f6bb35c99c02b23f50cadb968543a0fa0418a0f3bd3c9057b93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 5,635$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.75 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,391$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6835backed Yes | 17c | 2,339$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 11c | 1,535$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…42c0backed Yes | 13c | 1,035$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…b409backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…0c09backed Yes | 15c | 619.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed Yes | 13c | 476.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 15c | 346.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 52c | 254.18$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 12c | 219.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 200.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…abffbacked Yes | 15c | 189.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 22c | 188.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044d…0992backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519c…461fbacked Yes | 16c | 138.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…d84bbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 131.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…ab13backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…0d2bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…76ddbacked Yes | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…5721backed Yes | 16c | 76.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 14c | 76.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…2ff9backed Yes | 17c | 67.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…7576backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 78c | 35.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked No | 58c | 34.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c8fcbacked No | 79c | 21.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Armenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Australia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Czechia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Greece qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Ireland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Malta qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Serbia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.