Music · resolved market
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab4f1c96934ee2f5d937f45d3a3c15a8d1fe03cc3a6e4eb07ee14c87e3f1f827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 2c | 20,739$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.2 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e9…f9bebacked No | 2c | 12,722$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.91 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed No | 2c | 11,698$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked No | 2c | 4,326$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 1c | 2,891$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…42c0backed No | 2c | 2,618$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed No | 2c | 1,945$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed No | 2c | 1,030$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…dc66backed No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4553…f8d6backed No | 2c | 869.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 849.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed No | 2c | 686.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed No | 2c | 609$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…c08cbacked No | 3c | 473.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…a491backed No | 5c | 457$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 2c | 440.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 408.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aec…dd5fbacked No | 4c | 372$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…fe3ebacked No | 4c | 347.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…1ef6backed No | 4c | 343.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…2262backed No | 4c | 316.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…6825backed No | 5c | 315.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…9119backed No | 6c | 298$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…0c12backed No | 4c | 271.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…34f1backed No | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…11dabacked No | 5c | 219$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f0…770dbacked No | 7c | 156.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…6545backed No | 10c | 125.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…f7bdbacked No | 10c | 113.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…acebbacked No | 10c | 103.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Armenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Australia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Czechia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Greece qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Ireland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Malta qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Serbia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.