Music · resolved market
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d1c760fa0603096eedac36d55e54657fffdd5c429d4755c636c9d9cca4ccc6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecde…c846backed No | 1c | 28,095$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.97 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 1c | 21,738$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.64 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 11,748$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.56 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked No | 1c | 9,877$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed No | 1c | 6,626$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e9…f9bebacked No | 1c | 3,843$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93b…52f5backed No | 2c | 1,123$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,088$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed No | 1c | 995.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…eec6backed No | 2c | 898$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…e20cbacked No | 2c | 811.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8449…81f8backed No | 4c | 711.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c63…11e5backed No | 4c | 619.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263e…2976backed No | 3c | 423.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286f…0bb4backed No | 3c | 400.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1e…c8b2backed No | 4c | 390.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef78…6e1bbacked No | 3c | 359.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…0f10backed No | 4c | 359.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 3c | 347.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabc…06f8backed No | 3c | 330.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…f054backed No | 3c | 328.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b15…4f59backed No | 3c | 327.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb578…ea1abacked No | 4c | 319.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…efd3backed No | 3c | 296.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…3516backed No | 3c | 286.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5946…027bbacked No | 4c | 271.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af0…bff1backed No | 4c | 263.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…6114backed No | 5c | 233.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…8410backed No | 6c | 180.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?this page
- Will Armenia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Australia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Czechia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Greece qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Ireland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Malta qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?Yes won
- Will Montenegro qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
- Will Serbia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.