TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x725b…576d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 55 out of 100; worst UFC at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$419.25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.52
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$169.4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
US strikes Yemen before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.4
Houthi strike on Israel before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$22
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$16.5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.16
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$66
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+86%+$135.41
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+94.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$10.8
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+900%+$90
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+483%+$107.7
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+46.5%+$9.77
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.37
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+46.8%+$23.6
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$31.25
Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will anyone say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will a candidate say "LaGuardia" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$17.32
All 12 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.38
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.11
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.71
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will Jonathan Groff win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.5
Will Darren Criss win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+95%+$166.33
Will "Purpose" win the Tony for Best Play 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$53.04
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$84.7
Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+76.1%+$22.88
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+121.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kamala Harris endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$45.14
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.