Music · resolved market
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x435f0cf3af2ef5c3312603cf568afa6c5ad63799f655bb08769bc7b4d40c8ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 76c | 4,001$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.7 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 3,483$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.27 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 2,625$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.22 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 14c | 2,080$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 18c | 1,900$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.9 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 12c | 1,703$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.01 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 74c | 1,099$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.19 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 1,044$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.41 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 770.97$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 70c | 536.2$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 519.98$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 80c | 490.22$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 30c | 408$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 15c | 404.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246a…19b8backed Yes | 17c | 317.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc640…1fa9backed Yes | 15c | 315.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes | 14c | 303.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a487backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 73c | 300$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 14c | 282.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +420.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 13c | 280.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 73c | 278.68$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 33c | 262.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 27c | 237.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d3…6e63backed Yes | 28c | 236.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 233$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 27c | 225$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 72c | 207.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 71c | 193.11$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…1538backed Yes | 30c | 168.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ae…91c2backed Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…4169backed Yes | 28c | 142.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 62c | 127.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b1…bc01backed No | 80c | 126.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…ec4bbacked Yes | 16c | 109.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 15c | 105.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 28c | 105.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 13c | 103.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…71cebacked Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 96.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…a1e6backed Yes | 30c | 95.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 80.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb6…6373backed Yes | 15c | 74.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8666backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf364…7d5ebacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 69c | 50.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…98edbacked No | 80c | 42.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Belgium win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Croatia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Estonia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Georgia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Lithuania win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Moldova win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Montenegro win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Poland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Portugal win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will San Marino win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Serbia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Sweden win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.