Music · resolved market
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c920da8d7672260aa11221da0f323e44f2d716373b46ea85f412f156d3940ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 3,365$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.08 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 3,107$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,442.15 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 12c | 2,761$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,425.35 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…5c81backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.47 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +76%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,402$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…a487backed Yes | 15c | 696.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.64 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 21c | 516.15$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.92 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a48…497ebacked Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 13c | 400$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…371cbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 12c | 295.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.14 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 16c | 237.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda8e…3edfbacked Yes | 14c | 230.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 71c | 214.41$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…3784backed Yes | 14c | 213.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 205.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…2ddcbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 27cpaid | +321.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 12c | 182.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0399…345bbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…b20fbacked Yes | 14c | 144.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 13c | 129.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked Yes | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +265.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a4…77f0backed Yes | 15c | 128.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…e75abacked Yes | 14c | 109.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…1027backed Yes | 14c | 108.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 15c | 104.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 100.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…abb9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…2a23backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 15c | 91.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d3…6e63backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f09…fc31backed Yes | 68c | 73.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…cc13backed Yes | 16c | 72.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 18c | 61.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 44.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 71c | 18.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Belgium win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Croatia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Estonia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Georgia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Lithuania win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Moldova win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Montenegro win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Poland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Portugal win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will San Marino win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Serbia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Sweden win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.