Music · resolved market
Will Jonathan Groff win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d8b9a1023531fc72b21d87b0c9f31194b9997fd9ff106ddd451ee35628f792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 70c | 583.4$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 446.53$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.67 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 38c | 330.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 60c | 156.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 67c | 150.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 67c | 141.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 26c | 129.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…2638backed Yes | 42c | 120.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 17c | 118.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 67c | 105.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 64c | 102$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…5a29backed Yes | 16c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 20c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 34c | 57.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 27c | 55.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 32c | 44.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 29c | 34.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jonathan Groff win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025?this page
- Will Andrew Durand win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025?No won
- Will Darren Criss win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025?Yes won
- Will Jeremy Jordan win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025?No won
- Will Tom Francis win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.