TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,573,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,421,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,573,239 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e4…c991backed Yes1c100,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xffc1…9a12backed Yes0c90,529$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.531233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x764d…15aebacked Yes3c59,876$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c47,816$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.91581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes1c42,358$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.943215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfb9…be64backed Yes5c39,195$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes4c23,756$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.616516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c22,397$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.452078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf693…4536backed Yes2c18,779$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c15,451$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.28504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c14,541$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.11647.8%5 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ddc…77a1backed Yes1c13,897$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes0c13,731$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.233116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c13,655$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.78964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612e…675bbacked Yes5c13,368$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes3c13,247$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.552441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes0c13,121$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes3c12,837$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.831936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes1c11,450$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c10,762$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0749023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes4c10,527$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.2517530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe4…2859backed Yes2c9,331$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes1c9,258$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.359711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes1c8,500$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72f7…1870backed Yes4c7,733$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked Yes2c7,316$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.542045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ab…8bccbacked Yes5c7,165$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes1c6,961$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc64…46cabacked Yes2c6,563$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dda…782ebacked Yes6c6,286$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes4c6,264$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.024940.8%20 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20bd…8e5cbacked Yes4c5,600$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x685b…69efbacked Yes5c5,227$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf47d…f295backed Yes2c5,151$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f28…82e0backed Yes1c5,089$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa54d…4107backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f2…5620backed Yes5c4,207$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…9ddbbacked Yes3c3,880$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4b…d78abacked Yes2c3,799$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2a…a436backed Yes5c3,728$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fec…bdcbbacked Yes3c3,641$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.01728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd25f…77d9backed Yes4c3,593$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes2c3,500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes5c3,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.121457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+50.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a0d…1359backed Yes3c3,422$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+144.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76a0…0da6backed Yes2c3,397$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…e674backed Yes2c3,335$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf98…efdfbacked Yes2c3,320$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1399…913ebacked Yes5c3,319$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes1c3,287$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.472030%6 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8d…e00dbacked Yes1c3,280$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe386…5aa5backed Yes2c3,275$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c8…68d7backed Yes6c3,206$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes3c3,180$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8542…6952backed Yes5c3,156$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.81560%3 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick15cpaid+320.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x741f…f6cabacked Yes0c3,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes6c3,084$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1706633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes3c3,074$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes4c3,054$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.311822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7670…5204backed Yes4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes1c3,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e8a…91f0backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes2c3,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,876$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.491,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes5c2,719$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.67520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69a…47aabacked Yes5c2,647$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.57580%4 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.60per pick20cpaid+356.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9265…4ab7backed Yes2c2,622$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.261428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes5c2,600$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.71855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd289…2edcbacked Yes4c2,576$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c3c…2050backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes1c2,482$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4413033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes4c2,465$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc36…fb3fbacked Yes5c2,318$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda4a…cb1bbacked Yes4c2,275$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc124…25cbbacked Yes6c2,196$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf383…8b45backed Yes2c2,174$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a26…0402backed Yes3c2,165$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c2,144$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8642120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa7…37fbbacked Yes4c2,101$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.751612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x772b…edd5backed Yes3c2,100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes4c2,046$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.23147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked Yes5c2,020$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d37…43fabacked Yes6c2,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7215…9842backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…1863backed Yes5c1,966$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes4c1,953$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.421553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed Yes5c1,943$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.531435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eda…2574backed Yes4c1,914$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe011…49a5backed Yes1c1,842$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes3c1,717$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd28c…5de7backed Yes1c1,702$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-63.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeea…604dbacked Yes3c1,634$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Yes1c1,629$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes1c1,615$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-57.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fff…f15fbacked Yes1c1,613$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4578…c055backed Yes1c1,527$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes8c1,447$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3520549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce59…eb51backed Yes5c1,415$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.