Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b4ce7305403b9fd0756c91559d6edcf79062478c1d58bd2f5f1d1b2d34c3098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 78c | 2,482$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.32 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…3614backed No | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 65c | 596.55$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 35c | 495$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 65c | 349.86$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 20c | 342.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed No | 35c | 289.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 33c | 259.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 26c | 248.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 30c | 248.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed Yes | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 36c | 182.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…381ebacked Yes | 62c | 176.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed Yes | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 37c | 111$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 94.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked No | 33c | 92.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdb…2fc5backed Yes | 67c | 88.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 86.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 65c | 80.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…1e7cbacked Yes | 74c | 80.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…bc52backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 70c | 71.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 32c | 57.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…08a5backed Yes | 78c | 51.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked No | 46c | 43.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ec…e4b4backed No | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…efbcbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…2225backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 65c | 30.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…556cbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed Yes | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?this page
- Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.