Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab0a46b8eb9b7f50c40ef029357c3105273d7d5e175bb9d5fc2dfd82af40eb79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 18c | 619.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.19 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 19c | 610.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.13 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 18c | 356.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.62 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 19c | 333$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.53 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 21c | 257.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…0fa3backed Yes | 17c | 170.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 12cpaid | +332.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 80c | 169.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed Yes | 24c | 50.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 13.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?this page
- Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.