Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a9575f4dda549bca32ec292ffaa9ca4ea7b59a6f82b72138b244853e9672a5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 80c | 1,542$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 23c | 888.04$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.44 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed No | 26c | 603.78$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 23c | 439.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 78c | 406.17$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 78c | 405.17$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…d46bbacked Yes | 75c | 334.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 74c | 300.68$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked Yes | 78c | 293.01$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…381ebacked Yes | 74c | 270.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 74c | 251.85$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 79c | 238$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 73c | 227.51$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked No | 23c | 214.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 24c | 179.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 22c | 162.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 146.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 75c | 140.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 80c | 125.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cf…d71bbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 30c | 112$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…a95dbacked No | 25c | 100.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…f594backed No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…04f3backed Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 74c | 85.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Yes | 74c | 69.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 27c | 69.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…99c7backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 59c | 48.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384e…0a46backed No | 35c | 42.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…4ec3backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…0e99backed No | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 67c | 36.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed No | 50c | 26.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…f8debacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 69c | 25.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…1cb1backed Yes | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 62c | 20.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32d…43aabacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4e…3507backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd869…9dd2backed Yes | 70c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Yes | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…7a68backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?this page
- Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.