Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21d71b544f618fca785def6ffd793d5f0ba21942f4ee052a1738e583f73034b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 23c | 1,966$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.36 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 18c | 1,001$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 32c | 677.35$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 68c | 346.3$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 66c | 300$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 30c | 233.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 224.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 36c | 222$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 76c | 208.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 66c | 179.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 31c | 173$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 21c | 160.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 67c | 158$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…c262backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc05d…ad38backed Yes | 68c | 99.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 67c | 89.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 88.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 58c | 62.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bf…0db2backed Yes | 65c | 57.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44c…8e6cbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 70c | 35.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 67c | 34.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384e…0a46backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 67c | 30.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…9c60backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…efbcbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 72c | 27.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…7ed7backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680e…10d0backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…f257backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 79c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?this page
- Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.